June 21st, 2005

An India-Pak “Cuban Missle Crisis”?

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More proof emerges that there is a serious disconnect between Pakistan’s polity and military. Pakistan has been repeatedly ruled by military dictators who have deemed duly elected political leaders unfit to rule. Recently, Dawn, Pakistan’s premier English newspaper conceded that “Pakistan’s military had prepared a nuclear-tipped missile to fight back a possible Indian attack during the Kargil crisis. According to the book, former US president Bill Clinton had conveyed this news to the then Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif who was taken aback by the revelation” [via Rediff News]. According to the article in Dawn, the book even mentions that Bill Clinton likened the situation to the Cuban missile crisis that brought the world on the brink of a nuclear war in the early sixties.

Did the nuclear crisis really loom and act as a deterrent to any overt hostile action beyond pushing the infiltrators over the LOC? Had the Indian establishment known of this nuclear tipped missile and prepared one of its own? Of course, any first-strike nuclear attack by Pakistan would involve a full scale response by India, obliterating Pakistan’s existence. But the hardliners in Pakistan wouldn’t hesitate to dispatch a nuclear missile to India in spite of its subsequent harsher consequences.

However, the keyword here is that the military was acting independently of the political leadership regards nuclear deployment. This is a dangerous scenario. If you remember correctly, the Cuban missile crisis was primarily averted due to Kennedy’s steadfast resolve not to indulge his generals’ military response. Lately CNN has been reporting a lot on nuclear terrorism and Pakistan’s central role in abetting or at least being responsible for such an attack. Of course, the AQ Khan incident and his farce of his public apology and subsequent pardon isn’t a distant memory yet. Pakistan has proven to being an irresponsible nuclear power and its arsenal should be grounded immediately. Will the so-called world powers realize this simple truth before it is too late?

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3 Responses to “An India-Pak “Cuban Missle Crisis”?”

  1. Michael H. Says:

    Hi Patrix
    Interesting post.
    I can never understand this administration’s blind spot when it comes to Bin Ladenstan - I mean Pakistan. The AQ Khan incident is a case in point. But the biggest thing is that Bin Laden is hiding in that country and Musharrif isn’t really trying to find him. A few months ago he admitted that Bin Laden “Was probably hiding in Pakistan” and he might as well added “And if you give me 10 billion, I might be able to find him.”

    You raise an interesting point: how much in control of Pakistan is Musharrif? He was the head of the military (I guess he still is) so wouldn’t say much about discipline there if he didn’t have complete control over the military. But the ISI is a force on it own. I wish the US would lean of Pakistan to disolve the ISI.

  2. Ashutosh Jogalekar Says:

    I get the feeling that the US will always try to appease Pak, to maintain their status there. They will always need Pak as a base from which to gain entry to the major Muslim speaking world in the Middle East. It was always that way.

  3. Reuben Says:

    Patrix,
    You should read the Bruce Riedel report in full. It’s a tremendous (and scary) read. It’s available online at

    http://www.sas.upenn.edu/casi/publications/Papers/Riedel_2002.pdf

    Quite amazing to see how clueless Nawaz really was on what Musharraf was cooking up.

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