September 15th, 2008

Too Early to Call

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John McCain often brings up the issue of [success of] the surge on the campaign trail regardless of the fact that it is just one part of the largely unpopular war. Rationally, it shouldn’t even matter if one part of a war that should never have been waged succeeds or not. Probably it may allow the American troops to declare victory and withdraw in grace. McCain skirts the issue of his judgment in allowing the war in the first place while harping on the success of a strategy he had little role in formulating.

But if we accept his premise for an instant that the success of the surge underlines the strength of his judgment then it remains to be seen if the surge indeed was the sole reason for the decline in violence. War proponents are mum on the future direction of the war because by their logic, if more troops mean success and victory then the U.S. should be sending in more troops. But you rarely see this position being propagated. Even the commander on the ground, Gen.Petraeus whom the Republicans worship has refused to use the term ‘victory’ and insists that the condition is fragile. Probably he is the only one who remembers the folly of ‘Mission Accomplished’. The following article in The Independent takes a look at the premise of the surge success and the future direction of the war:

If McCain wins the presidential election in November, his lack of understanding of what is happening in Iraq could ignite a fresh conflict. In so far as the surge has achieved military success, it is because it implicitly recognizes America’s political defeat in Iraq. Whatever the reason for President George Bush’s decision to invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein in 2003, it was not to place the Shia Islamic parties in power and increase the influence of Iran in the country; yet that is exactly what has happened [source].

So in effect the United States by invading Iraq ended up emboldening the Shia Islamic parties which in turn take orders from Iran; not something that even the most hardcore neo-con would have liked. For a man who often confuses his Sunnis and Shias, it may not bode well for the country who seeks to end current wars rather than start new ones. The latest cover story in The Atlantic explores the relationship of McCain and wars and how he considers the Vietnam war as a missed opportunity and possibly views the Iraq war as a possible way to win the unfinished war. Probably Sarah Palin is right; McCain may have to live closer to the Middle East in order to understand it better.

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