October 27th, 2008

Is the Race Tightening?

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If you’re a nervous wreck waiting for November 4th when the country finally votes and don’t know what to make of the so-called tightening of the race flogged incessantly by the media, then Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight eases your tension. He is uncharacteristically specific and uses his own 2/2/2 condition by saying that “In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain” he would want to see the following:
“John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.”

If this condition is fulfilled say, a day or two before the election then be prepared for a long night with McCain still not a favorite otherwise you can easily make it to bed before 10pm fully knowing who the President is gonna be. Don’t expect the media to tell you this. It is not in their best interest to call this ahead of time even if it is painfully obvious.

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2 Responses to “Is the Race Tightening?”

  1. Confused Says:

    Yeah,

    The race tightening is natural when u have an unknown guy on the ticket and you have to make a final decision. I don’t think it will have an impact in the end. Anyways, the real thing is battleground states; here Obama is comfortably ahead.

  2. Patrix Says:

    @Confused: True. The national numbers may be tightening but that may also mean more Republican support for McCain in non-battleground states. Four more days!

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