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So it is yet another Super Tuesday. Honestly, it doesn’t take much to make a Tuesday super these days. In India, Angarika could be safely considered as one especially if you are a Siddhivinayak bhakt but across the pond, it just takes two states to head to the polls. Folks on the cable news networks have been celebrating Christmas all year round and they will be glad to know that whatever the outcome, it is going to continue at least until June. If you wonder how the heck do these so-called pundits who have got every prediction wrong continue to ramble every evening then you’ve not known the wonder of the polls. If you want to know why I think that this race will continue then just take a look at the Gallup poll below:
This daily poll conducted by Gallup tracks the numbers for Clinton and Obama. If the past few weeks have been any indication, then it is simply pointless trying to judge who is leading. On some days, the difference is more than 10 points and that lead reverses thanks to some idiotic controversy, which strangely doesn’t matter when asked independently. Yesterday, Obama was up by 5 points whereas only a few days ago he was 4 points behind; all within the margin of error. So technically, the only poll that may matter is the day before the poll and all these daily yo-yo polls don’t really tell you much. If you pay close attention to the process, these poll numbers don’t even matter and only the delegate count math does which in fact is unlikely to change drastically unless one candidate is completely blown away. And knowing that even Guam went 50-50 (difference of seven votes), it highly unlikely anything untoward will happen in IN and NC. So why do the pundits keep yapping? I know, I should just watch re-runs of Law & Order instead.
by Patrix | on Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 at 2:30 pm | 
Media, Politicking . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
and I thought it was going to be about cross-dressing sprinters..
May 6th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
sqrlnt,ah! Wouldn’t that be more interesting than what I’m talking about.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
well,at least it’d be over with much faster..
May 7th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
As I often ask, what are the error bars on those numbers? :) Those margins could stop an already small difference from having any statistical significance whatsoever.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Quite true.
I stopped following the “expert analysts” and the primaries since Feb. Heck.. I cannot vote and no matter who becomes President, i doubt that my situation as an immigrant (a legal one.. just for the record ;) ) is going to change significantly.
The convenient change of stance that most of these pundits adopt depending upon the day’s news only makes their analysis quite senseless.
I would vote for “Law and Order” any day.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
At this point even re-runs of “the bachelor” will spring more interest in me than these democratic primaries!
May 8th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Nice Post !
You should use an Indian social bookmarking widget like PrachaarThis to let your users easily bookmark their favorite blog posts.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Ashwin, I guess we all can take a break for the summer and return when the general election race heats up.
Supremus, Heck no…I rather poke myself in the eye. Not even watching American Idol this year.
Roshini, hmmm…touting a web2.0 desi clone on blogs, I see. I’m quite happy with del.icio.us and SU, thank you very much.